April 6, 2020
A Viral Tsunami
By Jean-Luc Butel
I vividly remember the tragedies of the December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami (more than 275,000 deaths) and the Japan tsunami of March 11, 2011 (about 16,000 deaths). While it is impossible to stop a tsunami, the world has since put in place international and regional networks of sensors, known as Tsunami Warning Systems (TWS). These sensors span across our oceans and seas including the Pacific, Indian, North Eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean and the Caribbean. In essence, the TWS is an early warning system helping governments and societies prepare for and mitigate the damage of these natural disasters.
Today we now globally face a viral tsunami. It is not the first time the world sees such a pandemic (viral or bacterial). The European plague (Black Death) in the mid-fourteenth century killed about 25 million people and the Spanish flu in 1918 infected an estimated 500 million people and killed between 20 and 50 million people. Since then, advances in science, vaccines and other prophylactic treatments allow us to effectively combat such calamities. Or so we thought. In a strange challenge to modern day society’s sense of scientific invulnerability, our main and primary tool to combat this latest pandemic is to go back to what the populations of yesteryear did: retreat to your caves. Maybe this is the sad irony of 2020…the “Year of the Rat”.
Covid-19 could have originated in any number of places so there is no need to argue about its origin. What needs to be clearly stated however is that this pandemic is largely man-made. It is a significant failure of our political classes, communication networks, supply chains for emergency medical supplies, as well as the preparedness of our hospital, clinical and laboratory systems. Covid-19 is creating social, economic and human distortions on a scale not previously experienced by humankind. First after the victims and their families, my thoughts go to the front-line health care workers, the vast majority of which are not given the means to fight this battle. Many have already paid the ultimate price for being sent into battle so ill equipped. This could and should have been avoided.
In this age of incredible scientific achievements, without minimizing the absolute necessity and acute urgency to find more rapid ways to stop the propagation of this deadly virus, we have to innovate for future times. We need better ways of combatting pandemics than of asking half the world population to “retreat to its caves”. We have to think of different solutions that do not shut down the global economy. We have to think of better policies that do not add to the monstrous mountain of household and governmental debt.
Let’s go back to the TWS. Why do we not have such systems, processes, and policies in place where political, nationalistic and economic considerations take a backseat to dealing with worldwide health emergencies? While clearly not perfect, the world’s reaction to the last Ebola crisis (11,300 deaths) is somewhat of a blueprint for a better reaction in the future.
Covid-19 and any future pathogens demand a different response, one that mirrors the TWS. I am neither an infectious disease specialist, a virologist or a pathologist. Yet after 35+ years of healthcare industry and business leadership experience I know that effective crisis management includes advanced warning, “automated” response systems, pre-agreed decision making mechanisms and processes that allow an organization to “stay with” and not “fall behind” fast-moving health threats.
The human and economic cost of today’s crisis should make obvious the need to establish a Viral TWS. The idea is simple. The number of laboratories in the world that can effectively and rapidly detect new viruses and pathogens is relatively limited. These laboratories should all be electronically connected to a central decision-making body comprised of world experts (WHO, CDC, etc.). Such a body would have the authority to immediately trigger responses that would drastically limit or even stop any potential spread of newly discovered threats at ground zero the “minute” the first discovery reports are published. Obviously, all of this would take place based on pre-agreed decision-making protocols that would also leave room for swift reaction to un-planned scenarios.
I certainly acknowledge the political reaction to such a “supra-national” body by those claiming national sovereignty, clinging to crowd-pleasing political slogans, who disparage sound science, who call “fake” anything that disturbs their political agenda and who see a threat to their political authority when someone sounds an alarm bell that does not fit their political and social narratives. However, the delayed and non-coordinated reactions due to these views has had and continue to have dramatic and terribly negative consequences for all. Is this worth the human casualties and the destruction of entire sectors of the economy?
World catastrophes often start small and then snowball due to human errors and shortcomings. In the case of this pandemic fortunately a few countries have reacted in very pro-active and decisive manner to Covid-19. Singapore and Taiwan showed the example. These governments were ready in all the relevant multiple dimensions to deal with the crisis and thus are managing the situation very effectively.
I do not pretend that my proposal for a healthcare TWS is a full solution to the Covid-19 situation. It represents, however, a critical first line of defense that would dramatically reduce the downstream impact of such crisis, protecting the physically and economically vulnerable everywhere.